Scenarios

Crash Simulator

Invest a fixed amount every month at a yearly return you choose. Drag the market off that path and see how buying through a crash changes the outcome.

Assumptions

Monthly investment

Expected annual return

Years

yrs

Already invested

Portfolio on your path

$445,377.92

You finish ahead of smooth compounding. You bought more while prices were below the return you assumed, and the recovery reprices those extra shares.

Contributed
$150,000.00
Compound growth
$295,377.92
Steady path
$391,520.94
If every year returned 7%
Versus steady
+$53,856.98
14% more shares than the steady path

Projection

Your path$445.4K
Steady compound$391.5K
Contributed$150K

Versus steady

AheadBehind

Market path

Deepest · Year 9 · −40% vs trend

Drag a year down to price the market below the return you assumed, or up to price it above. The last point decides whether the move lasts. Double-click a point to clear it, or use the arrow keys on a selected point.

Educational estimate only, not financial advice. Markets, taxes, and fees can change outcomes.

FAQ

What are the three lines?: Contributed is cash you pay in. Steady compound is the portfolio if every month hits the yearly return you set. Your path is those same buys at the prices you draw. The lower line is the market versus that return, not your balance. −30% means prices are 30% cheaper than the smooth path, so the same deposit buys more.
Why can a crash leave me ahead?: Pull prices down, then bring the last point back to the line. You buy more shares during the dip, and the recovery prices those shares at the healed market. The portfolio can finish above smooth compounding. Money invested only at the start does not pick up extra shares in the middle. It finishes ahead only when that first buy is cheaper than the ending price.
When does a crash leave me behind?: If the market is still below your return at the end, or you drag prices up and buy through an expensive stretch, you can finish behind. A discount that never changes is a wash: you hold more shares, and each one is worth less by the same amount.
What does this leave out?: Taxes, fees, and months you skip. The simulator invests the monthly amount every month, including during a crash, and it assumes you never sell.